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2024

• Cucunubá, Z. M., Gutiérrez-Romero, S. A., Ramírez, J. D., Velásquez-Ortiz, N., Ceccarelli, S., Parra-Henao, G., . . . Abad-Franch, F. (2024). The epidemiology of Chagas disease in the Americas. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 37. doi:10.1016/j.lana.2024.100881
  Article. .
• Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2024). Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. Journal of Travel Medicine, 31(4), pages. doi:10.1093/jtm/taae062
  Article. .
• Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2024). Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases. doi:10.1101/2024.02.12.24302682
  Preprint. .

2023

• Kim, Y., Fournié, G., Métras, R., Song, D., Donnelly, C. A., Pfeiffer, D. U., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Lessons for cross-species viral transmission surveillance from highly pathogenic avian influenza Korean cat shelter outbreaks. Nature Communications, 14(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42738-w
  Article. .
• Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Adamo, S. B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 378(1887). doi:10.1098/rstb.2022.0278
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Parag, K. V., Wardle, J., Nash, R. K., Imai, N., Van Elsland, S. L., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts. PLoS ONE, 18(10 October). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0286199
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Imai, N., Watson, O. J., Abbood, A., Abdelmalik, P., Cornelissen, T., . . . Cori, A. (2023). Lessons from COVID-19 for rescalable data collection. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 23(9), e383-e388. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00121-4
  Article. .
• Kim, Y., Nouvellet, P., Rogoll, L., Staubach, C., Schulz, K., Sauter-Louis, C., . . . Fournié, G. (2023). Contrasting seasonality of African swine fever outbreaks and its drivers. Epidemics, 44. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100703
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Wardle, J., Nash, R. K., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2023). Extending EpiEstim to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time: SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. Epidemics, 44. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100692
  Article. .
• Nash, R. K., Bhatt, S., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Estimating the epidemic reproduction number from temporally aggregated incidence data: A statistical modelling approach and software tool. PLoS Computational Biology, 19(8 August). doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011439
  Article. .
• Thrift, E., Nouvellet, P., & Mathews, F. (2023). Plastic entanglement poses a potential hazard to European Hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus in Great Britain. Animals, 13(15), pages. doi:10.3390/ani13152448
  Article. .
• Cori, A., Lassmann, B., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Data needs for better surveillance and response to infectious disease threats. Epidemics, 43. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100685
  Article. .
• Kim, Y., Leopardi, S., Scaravelli, D., Zecchin, B., Priori, P., Festa, F., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2023). Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis: mechanistic modelling study based on longitudinal seroprevalence data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 290(1997), pages. doi:10.1098/rspb.2023.0183
  Article. .
• Kim, Y., Donnelly, C. A., & Nouvellet, P. (2023). Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England. Nature Communications, 14, pages. doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37813-1
  Article. .
• Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Kraemer, M. U. G., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2023). Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: A scoping review and simulation study. Epidemics, 42. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100666
  Article. .

2022

• Hayes, S., Lushasi, K., Sambo, M., Changalucha, J., Ferguson, E. A., Sikana, L., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2022). Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns. Veterinary research, 53(1), 106. doi:10.1186/s13567-022-01121-1
  Article. .
• Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J. L., Ullrich, A., . . . Schienle, M. (2022). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. Communications Medicine, 2(1). doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8
  Article. .
• Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Basáñez, M. G., & Nouvellet, P. (2022). Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 22(1). doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01477-6
  Article. .
• Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Walteros, D. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2022). Estimating Zika virus attack rates and risk of Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombian capital cities with a Bayesian model. Royal Society Open Science, 9(11). doi:10.1098/rsos.220491
  Article. .
• Cramer, E. Y., Huang, Y., Wang, Y., Ray, E. L., Cornell, M., Bracher, J., . . . al., E. (2022). The United States COVID-19 forecast hub dataset. Scientific Data, 9(1), pages. doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01517-w
  Article. .
• Ledien, J., Cucunubá, Z. M., Parra-Henao, G., Rodríguez-Monguí, E., Dobson, A. P., Adamo, S. B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2022). Linear and Machine Learning modelling for spatiotemporal disease predictions: Force-of-Infection of Chagas disease. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16(7). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010594
  Article. .
• Nash, R. K., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2022). Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges. PLOS Digital Health, 1(6 June). doi:10.1371/journal.pdig.0000052
  Article. .
• Nash, R., Cori, A., & Nouvellet, P. (2022). Estimating the epidemic reproduction number from temporally aggregated incidence data: a statistical modelling approach and software tool. doi:10.1101/2022.12.08.22283241
  Preprint. .
• Wardle, J., Bhatia, S., Kraemer, M., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2022). Gaps in mobility data and implications for modelling epidemic spread: a scoping review and simulation study. doi:10.1101/2022.03.07.22272001
  Preprint. .

2021

• Desai, A., Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., & Lassmann, B. (2021). Data journalism and the COVID-19 pandemic: opportunities and challenges. The Lancet Digital Health, 3(10), pages. doi:10.1016/S2589-7500(21)00178-3
  Article. .
• Forna, A., Dorigatti, I., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Comparison of machine learning methods for estimating case fatality ratios: an Ebola outbreak simulation study. PLoS ONE, 16(9), 1-15. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0257005
  Article. .
• Lushasi, K., Hayes, S., Ferguson, E. A., Changalucha, J., Cleaveland, S., Govella, N. J., . . . Hampson, K. (2021). Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58(11), 2673-2685. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13983
  Article. .
• Gold, S., Donnelly, C. A., Woodroffe, R., & Nouvellet, P. (2021). Modelling the influence of naturally acquired immunity from subclinical infection on outbreak dynamics and persistence of rabies in domestic dogs. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15(7), 1-19. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009581
  Article. .
• Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. PLoS Computational Biology, 17(7), 1-25. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009174
  Article. .
• Djaafara, B. A., Whittaker, C., Watson, O. J., Verity, R., Brazeau, N. F., Widyastuti., . . . others. (2021). Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout. BMC Medicine, 19(1), 1-13. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2
  Article. .
• Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z. M., Walteros, D. M., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2021). Descriptive analysis of surveillance data for Zika virus disease and Zika virus-associated neurological complications in Colombia, 2015-2017. PLoS ONE, 16(6), 1-16. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0252236
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Lassmann, B., Cohn, E., Desai, A. N., Carrion, M., Kraemer, M. U. G., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Using digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread. npj Digital Medicine, 4(1), 1-10. doi:10.1038/s41746-021-00442-3
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Ainslie, K. E. C., Baguelin, M., Bhatt, S., . . . others. (n.d.). Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature Communications, 12(a1090), pages. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
  Article. .
• Lavezzo, E., Franchin, E., Ciavarella, C., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Barzon, L., Del Vecchio, C., . . . Crisanti, A. (2021). Author Correction: Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’ (Nature, (2020), 584, 7821, (425-429), 10.1038/s41586-020-2488-1). Nature, 590(7844), E11. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2956-7
  Article. .
• Fu, H., Wang, H., Xi, X., Boonyasiri, A., Wang, Y., Hinsley, W., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2021). Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 102, 463-471. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.075
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Wardle, J., Nash, R., Nouvellet, P., & Cori, A. (2021). A generic method and software to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time : SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study. doi:10.1101/2021.11.26.21266899
  Preprint. .
• Bracher, J., Wolffram, D., Deuschel, J., Görgen, K., Ketterer, J., Ullrich, A., . . . Schienle, M. (2021). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. doi:10.1101/2021.11.05.21265810
  Preprint. .
• Bhatia, S., Parag, K., Wardle, J., Imai, N., Van Elsland, S., Lassmann, B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment. doi:10.1101/2021.07.19.21260746
  Preprint. .
• Bhatia, S., Parag, K., Wardle, J., Imai, N., Elsland, S. V., Lassmann, B., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2021). Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment. doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-799162/v1
  Preprint. .

2020

• Unwin, H. J. T., Mishra, S., Bradley, V. C., Gandy, A., Mellan, T. A., Coupland, H., . . . Flaxman, S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature Communications, 11(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6
  Article. .
• Grassly, N. C., Pons-Salort, M., Parker, E. P. K., White, P. J., Ferguson, N. M., Ainslie, K., . . . Xi, X. (2020). Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(12), 1381-1389. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30630-7
  Article. .
• Radhakrishnan, S., Vanak, A. T., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Rabies as a public health concern in India⇔a historical perspective. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, 5(4). doi:10.3390/tropicalmed5040162
  Article. .
• Dighe, A., Cattarino, L., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Skarp, J., Imai, N., Bhatia, S., . . . Riley, S. (2020). Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC Medicine, 18(1). doi:10.1186/s12916-020-01791-8
  Article. .
• Lavezzo, E., Franchin, E., Ciavarella, C., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Barzon, L., Del Vecchio, C., . . . Crisanti, A. (2020). Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’. Nature, 584(7821), 425-429. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2488-1
  Article. .
• Flaxman, S., Mishra, S., Gandy, A., Unwin, H. J. T., Mellan, T. A., Coupland, H., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature, 584(7820), 257-261. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7
  Article. .
• Forna, A., Nouvellet, P., Dorigatti, I., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Case fatality ratio estimates for the 2013-2016 west african ebola epidemic: Application of boosted regression trees for imputation. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 70(12), 2476-2483. doi:10.1093/cid/ciz678
  Article. .
• Li, C., Zhang, Y., Nouvellet, P., Okoro, J. O., Xiao, W., & Harder, M. K. (2020). Distance is a barrier to recycling – or is it? Surprises from a clean test. Waste Management, 108, 183-188. doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2020.04.022
  Article. .
• Forna, A., Dorigatti, I., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. A. (2020). Spatiotemporal variability in case fatality ratios for the 2013–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 93, 48-55. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.046
  Article. .
• Gold, S., Donnelly, C. A., Nouvellet, P., & Woodroffe, R. (2020). Rabies virus-neutralising antibodies in healthy, unvaccinated individuals: What do they mean for rabies epidemiology?. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 14(2). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007933
  Article. .
• Jeffrey, B., Walters, C. E., Ainslie, K. E. C., Eales, O., Ciavarella, C., Bhatia, S., . . . Riley, S. (2020). Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with covid-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome Open Research, 5, 1-10. doi:10.12688/WELLCOMEOPENRES.15997.1
  Article. .
• Thompson, H. A., Imai, N., Dighe, A., Ainslie, K. E. C., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(8). doi:10.1093/JTM/TAAA135
  Article. .
• Radhakrishnan, S., Vanak, A. T., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. (2020). Rabies as a Public Health Concern in India – A Historical Perspective. doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0579.v1
  Article. .
• Charniga, K., Cucunubá, Z., Mercado, M., Prieto, F., Ospina, M., Nouvellet, P., & Donnelly, C. (2020). Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia. doi:10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811
  Article. .
• Mellan, T., Hoeltgebaum, H., Mishra, S., Whittaker, C., Schnekenberg, R., Gandy, A., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). Subnational analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. doi:10.1101/2020.05.09.20096701
  Article. .
• Vollmer, M., Mishra, S., Unwin, J., Gandy, A., Mellan, T., Bradley, V., . . . Bhatt, S. (2020). A sub-national analysis of the rate of transmission of COVID-19 in Italy. doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20089359
  Article. .
• Djaafara, B., Whittaker, C., Watson, O., Verity, R., Brazeau, N., Widyastuti, W., . . . Walker, P. G. T. (2020). Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia. doi:10.1101/2020.10.02.20198663
  Preprint. .
• Unwin, J., Mishra, S., Bradley, V., Gandy, A., Mellan, T., Coupland, H., . . . Flaxman, S. (2020). State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. doi:10.1101/2020.07.13.20152355
  Preprint. .

2019

• Fabrizio, M. D. C., Schweigmann, N. J., Cohen, J. E., Zu Dohna, H., e Gürtler, R., Cucunubá, Z. M., . . . Basañez, M. G. (2019). Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for chagas disease.. Gates Open Research, 3. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13069.1
  Article. .
• Desai, A. N., Kraemer, M. U. G., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Herringer, M., . . . Lassmann, B. (2019). Real-time epidemic forecasting: challenges and opportunities. Health Security, 17(4), 268-275. doi:10.1089/hs.2019.0022
  Article. .
• Waxman, D., & Nouvellet, P. (2019). Sub- or supercritical transmissibilities in a finite disease outbreak: Symmetry in outbreak properties of a disease conditioned on extinction. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 467, 80-86. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.01.033
  Article. .
• Zecchin, B., De Nardi, M., Nouvellet, P., Vernesi, C., Babbucci, M., Crestanello, B., . . . Cattoli, G. (2019). Genetic and spatial characterization of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in the area stretching between the Eastern and Dinaric Alps and its relationship with rabies and canine distemper dynamics. PLoS ONE, 14(3). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0213515
  Article. .
• Forna, A., Nouvellet, P., Dorigatti, I., & Donnelly, C. A. (2019). Case fatality ratio estimates for the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: application of Boosted Regression Trees for imputation. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 128. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.313
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Carrion, M., Cohn, E., Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Lassmann, B., . . . Brownstein, J. (2019). Big brother is watching - using digital disease surveillance tools for near real-time forecasting. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 27. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.080
  Article. .
• Leopardi, S., Nouvellet, P., Priori, P., Zecchin, B., Salomoni, A., Mancin, M., . . . de Benedictis, P. (2019). Unraveling the role of Myotis myotis in the ecology and transmission of rabies-related lyssaviruses (RRLVs). International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 79, 56. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.11.148
  Article. .
• Bhatia, S., Lassmann, B., Cohn, E., Carrion, M., Kraemer, M., Herringer, M., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2019). Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study. doi:10.1101/19011940
  Article. .
• Polonsky, J. A., Baidjoe, A., Kamvar, Z. N., Cori, A., Durski, K., John Edmunds, W., . . . Jombart, T. (2019). Outbreak analytics: A developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 374(1776). doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0276
  Article. .

2018

• Cori, A., Nouvellet, P., Garske, T., Bourhy, H., Nakouné, E., & Jombart, T. (2018). A graph-based evidence synthesis approach to detecting outbreak clusters: an application to dog rabies. PLoS Computational Biology, 14(12), 1-22. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006554
  Article. .
• Hay, J. A., Nouvellet, P., Donnelly, C. A., & Riley, S. (2018). Potential inconsistencies in Zika surveillance data and our understanding of risk during pregnancy. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(12). doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006991
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2018). Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study. The Lancet, 392(10143), 213-221. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31387-4
  Article. .
• Cucunubá, Z. M., Nouvellet, P., Peterson, J. K., Bartsch, S. M., Lee, B. Y., Dobson, A. P., & Basáñez, M. -G. (2018). Complementary paths to Chagas disease elimination: the impact of combining vector control with etiological treatment. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 66(suppl4), S293-S300. doi:10.1093/cid/ciy006
  Article. .

2017

• Cucunubá, Z. M., Nouvellet, P., Conteh, L., Vera, M. J., Angulo, V. M., Dib, J. C., . . . Basáñez, M. G. (n.d.). Modelling historical changes in the force-of-infection of Chagas disease to inform control and elimination programmes: application in Colombia. BMJ Global Health, 2(3), 1-11. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000345
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2017). Age matters in the UK's Brexit referendum. Significance, 14(4), 30-33. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01055.x
  Article. .
• Cori, A., Donnelly, C. A., Dorigatti, I., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C., Garske, T., . . . Blake, I. M. (2017). Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372(1721), 20160371 ( pages). doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0371
  Article. .
• Garske, T., Cori, A., Ariyarajah, A., Blake, I. M., Dorigatti, I., Eckmanns, T., . . . Donnelly, C. A. (2017). Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013–2016. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 372(1721), 20160308 ( pages). doi:10.1098/rstb.2016.0308
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Cori, A., Garske, T., Blake, I. M., Dorigatti, I., Hinsley, W., . . . Riley, S. (2018). A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics, 22, 29-35. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.012
  Article. .
• Cucunubá, Z. M., Manne-Goehler, J. M., Díaz, D., Nouvellet, P., Bernal, O., Marchiol, A., . . . Conteh, L. (2017). How universal is coverage and access to diagnosis and treatment for Chagas disease in Colombia? A health systems analysis. Social Science & Medicine, 175, 187-198. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.002
  Article. .

2016

• Nouvellet, P. (2016). Exposure patterns driving Ebola transmission in West Africa: a retrospective observational study. PLoS Medicine, 13(11), 1-23. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002170
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2016). After Ebola in West Africa — unpredictable risks, preventable epidemics. New England Journal of Medicine, 375(6), 587-596. doi:10.1056/NEJMsr1513109
  Article. .
• Cauchemez, S., Nouvellet, P., Cori, A., Jombart, T., Garske, T., Clapham, H., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2016). Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(32), 9081-9086. doi:10.1073/pnas.1519235113
  Article. .
• Ferguson, N. M., Cucunuba, Z. M., Dorigatti, I., Nedjati-Gilani, G. L., Donnelly, C. A., Basanez, M. -G., . . . Lessler, J. (2016). Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science, 353(6297), 353-354. doi:10.1126/science.aag0219
  Article. .
• Bourhy, H., Nakouné, E., Hall, M., Nouvellet, P., Lepelletier, A., Talbi, C., . . . Rambaut, A. (2016). Revealing the micro-scale signature of endemic Zoonotic disease transmission in an African urban setting. PLoS Pathogens, 12(4), 1-15. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1005525
  Article. .
• Cucunubá, Z. M., Okuwoga, O., Basáñez, M. -G., & Nouvellet, P. (2016). Increased mortality attributed to Chagas disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Parasites and Vectors, 9(42), 1-13. doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1315-x
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2016). Ebola virus disease among male and female persons in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 374(1), 96-98. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1510305
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Robotham, J. V., Naylor, N. R., Woodford, N., & Ferguson, N. (2016). Potential impact of novel diagnostics and treatments on the burden of antibiotic resistant in<i>Escherichia coli</i>. doi:10.1101/052944
  Article. .
• Lessler, J., Salje, H., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Ferguson, N. M., Cauchemez, S., Rodriquez-Barraquer, I., . . . Cummings, D. A. T. (2016). Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 183(7), 657-663. doi:10.1093/aje/kwv452
  Article. .

2015

• Nouvellet, P., Garske, T., Mills, H. L., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Hinsley, W., Blake, I. M., . . . Ferguson, N. M. (2015). The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics. Nature, 528(7580), S109-S116. doi:10.1038/nature16041
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2015). Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 372(13), 1274-1277. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1415318
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Cucunubá, Z. M., & Gourbière, S. (2015). Ecology, evolution and control of Chagas disease: a century of neglected modelling and a promising future. Advances in Parasitology, 87, 135-191. doi:10.1016/bs.apar.2014.12.004
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2015). West African Ebola epidemic after one year — slowing but not yet under control. New England Journal of Medicine, 372(6), 584-587. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1414992
  Article. .
• Aylward, B., Barboza, P., Bawo, L., Bertherat, E., Bilivogui, P., Blake, I., . . . Yoti, Z. (2015). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months. The New England journal of medicine, 372(2), 189. doi:10.1056/NEJMc1413884
  Article. .
• Helleringer, S., Grépin, K. A., & Noymer, A. (2015). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months.. The New England journal of medicine, 372(2), 188-189. doi:10.1056/nejmc1413884
  Article. .
• Rebaudet, S., Moore, S., & Piarroux, R. (2015). Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months.. The New England journal of medicine, 372(2), 188. doi:10.1056/nejmc1413884
  Article. .
• Deng, H., Nouvellet, P., & Waxman, D. (2015). Characterizing the dynamical accumulation of nuclear DNA in the sperm cells of lycium barbarum L.. International Journal of Plant Biology, 6(1), 4-8. doi:10.4081/pb.2015.5996
  Article. .

2014

• Lessler, J., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Cummings, D. A. T., Garske, T., Van Kerkhove, M., Mills, H., . . . Nouvellet, P. (2014). Estimating potential incidence of MERS-CoV associated with Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLoS Currents, pages. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.c5c9c9abd636164a9b6fd4dbda974369
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 Months of the epidemic and forward projections. New England Journal of Medicine, 371(16), 1481-1495. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
  Article. .

2013

• Nouvellet, P., Dumonteil, E., & Gourbière, S. (2013). The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(11), pages. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002505
  Article. .
• Donnelly, C. A., & Nouvellet, P. (2013). The contribution of badgers to confirmed tuberculosis in cattle in high-incidence areas in England. PLoS Currents, pages. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.097a904d3f3619db2fe78d24bc776098
  Article. .
• Dumonteil, E., Nouvellet, P., Rosecrans, K., Ramirez-Sierra, M. J., Gamboa-León, R., Cruz-Chan, V., . . . Gourbière, S. (2013). Eco-bio-social determinants for house infestation by non-domiciliated Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7(9), 1-9. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002466
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., & Gourbiere, S. (2013). Biased sex-ratio and sex-biased heterozygote disadvantage affect the maintenance of a genetic polymorphism and the properties of hybrid zones. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 26(8), 1774-1783. doi:10.1111/jeb.12180
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Newman, C., Buesching, C. D., & Macdonald, D. W. (2013). A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles). PLoS ONE, 8(7), 1-7. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0068116
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Donnelly, C. A., De Nardi, M., Rhodes, C. J., De Benedictis, P., Citterio, C., . . . Cattoli, G. (2013). Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of Northern Italy (2006–2010). PLoS ONE, 8(4), 1-12. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0061588
  Article. .

2012

• Campbell, R. D., Nouvellet, P., Newman, C., Macdonald, D. W., & Rosell, F. (2012). The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics. Global Change Biology, 18(9), 2730-2742. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02739.x
  Article. .

2011

• Nouvellet, P., Rasmussen, G. S. A., Macdonald, D. W., & Courchamp, F. (2012). Noisy clocks and silent sunrises: measurement methods of daily activity pattern. Journal of Zoology, 286(3), 179-184. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2011.00864.x
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J. P., & Waxman, D. (2011). Testing the level of ant activity associated with quorum sensing: An empirical approach leading to the establishment and test of a null-model (response to the comment of Richardson et al.). Journal of Theoretical Biology, 280(1), 191-193. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.03.035
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Ramirez-Sierra, M. J., Dumonteil, E., & Gourbière, S. (2011). Effects of genetic factors and infection status on wing morphology of Triatoma dimidiata species complex in the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico. Infection, Genetics and Evolution, 11(6), 1243-1249. doi:10.1016/j.meegid.2011.04.008
  Article. .

2010

• Czaczkes, T. J., Nouvellet, P., & Ratnieks, F. (2011). Cooperative food transport in the Neotropical ant, Pheidole oxyops. Insectes Sociaux, 58(2), 153-161. doi:10.1007/s00040-010-0130-1
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P. (2010). From A to B, statistical modelling of the ecology of ants and badgers.
  Thesis. .
• Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2010). Testing the level of ant activity associated with quorum sensing: An empirical approach leading to the establishment and test of a null-model. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 266(4), 573-583. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.07.010
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Buesching, C. D., Dugdale, H. L., Newman, C., & Macdonald, D. W. (2011). Mouthing off about developmental stress: individuality of palate marking in the European badger and its relationship with juvenile parasitoses. Journal of Zoology, 283(1), 52-62. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7998.2010.00743.x
  Article. .
• Macdonald, D. W., Newman, C., Buesching, C. D., & Nouvellet, P. (2010). Are badgers ‘Under The Weather’? Direct and indirect impacts of climate variation on European badger (Meles meles) population dynamics. Global Change Biology, 16, 2913-2922. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02208.x
  Article. .
• Dugdale, H. L., Nouvellet, P., Pope, L. C., Burke, T., & Macdonald, D. W. (2010). Fitness measures in selection analyses: sensitivity to the overall number of offspring produced in a lifetime. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 23(2), 282-292. doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01896.x
  Article. .

2009

• Macdonald, D. W., Newman, C., Nouvellet, P., & Buesching, C. D. (2009). An analysis of Eurasian badger (Meles meles) population dynamics: implications for regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Mammalogy, 90(6), 1392-1403. doi:10.1644/08-MAMM-A-356R1.1
  Article. .
• Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2009). Fundamental insights into the random movement of animals from a single distance-related statistic. American Naturalist, 174(4), 506-514. doi:10.1086/605404
  Article. .

2007

• Broom, M., Nouvellet, P., Bacon, J., & Waxman, D. (2007). Parameter-free testing of the shape of a probability distribution. BioSystems, 90(2), 509-515. doi:10.1016/j.biosystems.2006.12.002
  Article. .

2000

• Marais, G., Nouvellet, P., Keightley, P. D., & Charlesworth, B. (2005). Intron size and exon evolution in Drosophila. Genetics, 170(1), 481-485. doi:10.1534/genetics.104.037333
  Article. .